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Valuation
Scenario: Analyst estimates as of 18-May-21 | created: 18-May-21 | valuation date: 17-Aug-22 | in USD millions
OVERVIEW - Peloton Interactive, Inc.
EV - EQV BRIDGE
DISCOUNT RATES
SIMPLIFIED DISCOUNTED CASHFLOW WACC ('DCF WACC - simplified')
Cashflows
| TY | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | |||
| EBIT | |||
| - Tax | |||
| NOPAT | |||
| + Depreciation & Amortisation | |||
| - Capex | |||
| +/- Change in Net Working Capital | |||
| Free Cashflow | |||
| Time | |||
| Discount Factor ({{discountRates.wacc()|percent:1}} WACC) | |||
| Discounted Free Cashflow |
Values
| Present value of Discounted Free Cashflows | |
| Present value of Terminal Value ({{settings.percentage_of_terminal_value_included|percent:0}} included) | |
| Enterprise Value | |
| Net Debt | |
| Equity Value |
Sensitivities
|
Perpetual growth rate ('g')
|
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|
Weighted Average Cost of Capital ('WACC')
|
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DISCOUNTED CASHFLOW WACC (DCF WACC)
Cashflows
| TY | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | |||||||||
| EBIT | |||||||||
| - Tax | |||||||||
| NOPAT | |||||||||
| + Depreciation & Amortisation | |||||||||
| - Capex | |||||||||
| +/- Change in Net Working Capital | |||||||||
| Free Cashflow | |||||||||
| Debt | |||||||||
| Enterprise value at time t (WACC-based) | WACC | ||||||||
| Debt ratio (Debt / Capital) | |||||||||
| Target leverage (D / E) | |||||||||
| Cost of equity | |||||||||
| Risk free rate | |||||||||
| Beta unlevered | |||||||||
| Tax rate | |||||||||
| Target D/E ratio | |||||||||
| Beta relevered | |||||||||
| Market risk premium | |||||||||
| Cost of Equity Premium | |||||||||
| Cost of equity | |||||||||
| Cost of debt | |||||||||
| Risk free rate | |||||||||
| Spread | |||||||||
| Pre-tax cost of debt | |||||||||
| Tax rate | |||||||||
| Cost of debt | |||||||||
| WACC | |||||||||
| Cost of equity | |||||||||
| Cost of debt (post tax) | |||||||||
| Debt ratio (Debt / Capital) | |||||||||
| WACC (post tax) | |||||||||
| WACC (pre tax) | |||||||||
| Time | |||||||||
| Discount factor | |||||||||
| Discounted Free Cashflow | |||||||||
Values
| Present value of Discounted Free Cashflows | |
| Present value of Terminal Value ({{settings.percentage_of_terminal_value_included|percent:0}} included) | |
| Enterprise Value | |
| Net Debt | |
| Equity Value |
Sensitivities
|
Perpetual Growth Rate
|
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ADJUSTED PRESENT VALUE ('DCF APV')
Cashflows
| TY | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free Cashflow | ||||
| Time | ||||
| Discount Factor ({{apv.cost_of_equity()|percent:1}} CoE) | ||||
| Discounted Free Cashflow |
| Present value of Discounted Free Cashflow | ||
| Present value of Terminal Value ({{settings.percentage_of_terminal_value_included|percent:0}} included) | ||
| Unlevered Enterprise value |
| Debt | ||||
| Debt / EBITDA | ||||
| Interest rate | ||||
| Interest expense | ||||
| Tax rate | ||||
| Tax shield on interest | ||||
| Time | ||||
| Discount Factor ({{apv.cost_of_equity()|percent:1}} CoE) | ||||
| Discounted Tax shield |
Values
| Present value of Discounted Free Cashflow | |
| Present value of Terminal Value ({{settings.percentage_of_terminal_value_included|percent:0}} included) | |
| Value of tax shield | |
| Enterprise value | |
| Net Debt | |
| Equity Value |
Sensitivities
|
Perpetual growth rate ('g')
|
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|
Cost of Equity ('CoE')
|
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SIMPLIFIED FLOW-TO-EQUITY
Cashflows
| TY | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net income | ||||||||||
| - Capex | ||||||||||
| + Depreciation & Amortization | ||||||||||
| +/- Change in Net Working Capital | ||||||||||
| Sub-total | ||||||||||
| Free Cashflow to Equity (FCFE) | ||||||||||
| Time | ||||||||||
| Discount Factor ({{equityApproach.cost_of_equity()|percent:1}} CoE) | ||||||||||
| Discounted FCFE | ||||||||||
Values
| Present value of discounted FCFEs in forecast period | ||
| Present value of perpetual FCFEs ({{settings.percentage_of_terminal_value_included|percent:0}} included) | ||
| Equity Value | ||
| Net Debt | ||
| Enterprise value |
Sensitivities
|
Perpetual growth rate ('g')
|
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|
Cost of Equity
|
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DIVIDEND DISCOUNT MODEL ('DDM')
Cashflows
| TY | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net income | ||||||||||
| Dividend | ||||||||||
| Time | ||||||||||
| Discount Factor ({{discountRates.cost_of_equity()|percent:1}} CoE) | ||||||||||
| Discounted Dividend | ||||||||||
Values
| Present value of discounted dividends in forecast period | ||
| Present value of Terminal Value ({{settings.percentage_of_terminal_value_included|percent:0}} included) | ||
| Equity Value | ||
| Net Debt | ||
| Enterprise value |
Sensitivities
|
Perpetual growth rate ('g')
|
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|
Cost of Equity
|
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TRADING MULTIPLES - EV/SALES 2022
Median Multiple
Applied Multiple
TRADING MULTIPLES - EV/SALES 2023
Median Multiple
Applied Multiple
TRADING MULTIPLES - EV/EBITDA 2022
Median Multiple
Applied Multiple
TRADING MULTIPLES - EV/EBITDA 2023
Median Multiple
Applied Multiple
TRADING MULTIPLES - EV/EBIT 2022
Median Multiple
Applied Multiple
TRADING MULTIPLES - EV/EBIT 2023
Median Multiple
Applied Multiple
TRADING MULTIPLES - P/E 2022
Median Multiple
Applied Multiple
TRADING MULTIPLES - P/E 2023
Median Multiple
Applied Multiple
TRANSACTION MULTIPLES - EV/SALES
Median Multiple
Applied Multiple
TRANSACTION MULTIPLES - EV/EBITDA
Median Multiple
Applied Multiple
TRANSACTION MULTIPLES - EV/EBIT
Median Multiple
Applied Multiple
TRANSACTION MULTIPLES - P/E
Median Multiple
Applied Multiple
LEVERAGED BUYOUT ('LBO')
Financing Mix
| % | xEBIT | xEBITDA | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt | ||||
| Equity | ||||
| Total sources of funds |
Cashflows
| EBITDA | |||
| EBIT | |||
| +/- Net interest (expense)/income | |||
| EBT | |||
| - Tax | |||
| Net income | |||
| + Depreciation & Amortisation | |||
| +/- Change in Net Working Capital | |||
| Cashflow from Operations | |||
| Cashflow from Investments | |||
| Cashflow from Financing | |||
| Net Cashflow | |||
| Debt, bop | |||
| +/- Issuance/(Paydown) | |||
| Debt, eop | |||
| Interest expense | |||
| Cash, bop | |||
| +/- Net Cashflow | |||
| Cash, eop | |||
| Interest income |
Credit metrics
| Debt / EBITDA | |||
| Net debt / EBITDA | |||
| EBITDA / Interest expense | n/m | ||
| (EBITDA - Capex) / Interest expense | |||
| EBITDA / net interest expense |
Exit Calculations
| EV (@{{settings.exit_ev}}x EBIT) - exit | |||
| - Net debt | |||
| EqV - exit | |||
| Implied Entry Eqv ({{settings.irr_requirement | percent}} IRR) | |||
| + Acquisition Debt | |||
| Implied Entry EV | |||
| - Net debt @ Acquisition | |||
| Implied Purchase Price (EqV) | |||
| Exit EV | |||
| Exit EqV | |||
| Implied IRR |
Sensitivities
| IRR requirement | ||||||
|
Leverage
|
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